churn-prevention-analyst

# Churn Prevention Analyst

## Overview

Transform churn management from reactive firefighting into proactive customer health management. This skill encodes the early warning signals, intervention frameworks, and save strategies that identify at-risk customers early and deploy the right response to retain them.

## When to Use This Skill

- **Risk identification** — Detecting early warning signals
- **Intervention planning** — Designing response playbooks
- **Save motion execution** — Running save calls and offers
- **Win-back campaigns** — Re-engaging churned customers
- **Churn analysis** — Understanding patterns and root causes

## Churn Risk Signal Taxonomy

### Usage Signals

| Signal | Risk Level | Description |
|--------|------------|-------------|
| Usage drop >30% (30 days) | High | Significant disengagement |
| Key feature abandonment | High | Stopped using core value |
| Login frequency down 50% | Medium | Reduced engagement |
| No admin login (14 days) | Medium | Champion disengaged |

### Engagement Signals

| Signal | Risk Level | Description |
|--------|------------|-------------|
| No response to CSM (21 days) | High | Complete disengagement |
| Declined QBR | High | Avoiding relationship |
| Negative CSAT trend | High | Declining satisfaction |

### Business Signals

| Signal | Risk Level | Description |
|--------|------------|-------------|
| Champion left company | Critical | Rebuild required |
| Layoffs announced | High | Budget at risk |
| Acquisition/merger news | High | Contract renegotiation likely |

## Risk Scoring Model

```
Risk Score = (Usage × 0.30) + (Engagement × 0.25) + (Support × 0.20) + 
             (Business × 0.15) + (Relationship × 0.10)
```

| Score | Risk Level | Action Required |
|-------|------------|-----------------|
| 0-20 | Healthy | Standard engagement |
| 21-40 | Monitor | Increase touch frequency |
| 41-60 | At Risk | Intervention required |
| 61-80 | High Risk | Executive escalation |
| 81-100 | Critical | Save motion activated |

## Intervention Playbooks

### Usage Decline Playbook

**Trigger:** >30% usage drop over 30 days

**Day 1-3:** Investigate usage analytics, support tickets, product issues

**Day 4-7:** Outreach to champion
> Subject: Quick check-in on [Product]
>
> I noticed your team's usage has dropped recently. Is everything okay? Are there any challenges I can help with?

**Day 8-14:** Schedule health check, identify root cause, develop action plan

### Champion Departure Playbook

**Day 0-1:** Confirm departure, identify interim contact

**Day 2-7:** Request intro to successor via exec sponsor

**Day 8-30:** Onboard new champion, re-validate success criteria

## Save Offer Framework

### Save Offer Tiers

| Tier | Offer | When to Use |
|------|-------|-------------|
| **Tier 1** | Extended payment terms | Cash flow issues |
| **Tier 2** | 1-2 months free | Timing mismatch |
| **Tier 3** | 10-20% discount | Price sensitivity |
| **Tier 4** | Significant discount + commitment | Strategic account |

### Save Call Structure

1. **Opening:** "I want to understand what's driving this decision"
2. **Discovery:** What's changed? What would need to be true to stay?
3. **Response:** Acknowledge concerns, present relevant option
4. **Close:** Ask for commitment, set follow-up

## Win-Back Strategy

### Win-Back Timing

| Time Since Churn | Success Rate |
|------------------|--------------|
| 0-30 days | 15-25% |
| 31-90 days | 8-15% |
| 91-180 days | 3-8% |
| 180+ days | 1-3% |

### Win-Back Triggers

Re-engage when:
- Champion joins new company
- Competitor has major issue
- You ship feature they requested

## Churn Analysis

### Post-Churn Categories

| Category | Preventable? |
|----------|--------------|
| **Price** | Sometimes |
| **Product** | Sometimes |
| **Service** | Usually |
| **Competition** | Sometimes |
| **Business** | Rarely |
| **Bad fit** | No |

## Resources

### references/
- **signal-definitions.md** — Detailed signal calculations
- **intervention-library.md** — Additional playbooks

### assets/
- **risk-dashboard-template.xlsx** — Risk tracking
- **churn-analysis-template.pptx** — Post-churn debrief